This report examines how South Africa’s energy transition toward a low-carbon economy could reshape the labour market and inequality dynamics. Using an integrated macro–micro simulation approach, it links employment projections from the SATIM computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to household-level data through a microsimulation model.
South Africa’s commitment to a Just Transition entails an inclusive and equitable shift to a low-carbon economy that addresses both high carbon emissions and persistent inequality. Central to this is the need to facilitate economic diversification, social inclusion and environmental sustainability.
Despite South Africa’s carbon-intensive economy, research suggests that decarbonisation could result in net employment gains, provided the economy continues to grow (IASS, IET and CSIR, 2022; Merven et al., 2021; Rogan et al., forthcoming). While these projections are encouraging, the early distributional effects of emission reductions are likely to be unequal, with Black African workers, women and youth disproportionately at risk of job displacement during the initial years of the transition (Rogan et al., forthcoming).
As is widely acknowledged and evidenced, climate change threatens food security and sovereignty; water availability, accessibility, and quality; health; and livelihoods. This paper expands on the conceptual linkages of a care-climate nexus, with the aim of supporting climate policy.
Authors: Somali Cerise, Sarah Cook, Katrina Lehmann-Grube, Julia Taylor, and Imraan Valodia
This paper asks what a gender just transition could and should look like, particularly in the global South. Based on an extensive review of conceptual and empirical literatures from a range of disciplinary perspectives, we examine how different approaches address – or ignore – gender dimensions of (in)justice in thinking about low-carbon transitions. We go on to offer a more expansive view of justice informed by perspectives drawn from feminist theory and combine this with the pillars of distributive, procedural, recognitive and restorative justice.
Authors: Aalia Cassim, Julia Taylor, Roderick Crompton, and Imraan Valodia
This paper discusses the de-risking approach and the investment-centred approach to an energy transition, and using the case study of South Africa, argues for the necessity of an investment-centred approach to achieve a transition which supports local development and energy security. In analysing the example of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REI4P), the authors highlight important learnings for the energy transition, which provide a useful window into the wider carbon transition.
